{
  "record_type": "ladder_reinforced",
  "date": "2026-10-02",
  "evidence": "SIMULATED (IAPWS-IF97 verified properties; assumption-class cost and stress inputs; no measured plant performance)",
  "seed": 20261002,
  "n_draws": 20000,
  "boxes": {
    "declared_box": {
      "capital_multiplier": [
        0.95,
        1.15
      ],
      "energy_multiplier": [
        0.9,
        1.05
      ],
      "surface_price_multiplier": [
        0.9,
        1.15
      ],
      "subsurface_multiplier": [
        0.85,
        1.25
      ],
      "discount_rate": [
        0.06,
        0.1
      ],
      "capacity_factor": [
        0.85,
        0.95
      ],
      "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": [
        0.0,
        3.0
      ]
    },
    "contract_box": {
      "capital_multiplier": [
        0.95,
        1.05
      ],
      "energy_multiplier": [
        0.9,
        1.05
      ],
      "surface_price_multiplier": [
        0.9,
        1.1
      ],
      "subsurface_multiplier": [
        0.85,
        1.15
      ],
      "discount_rate": [
        0.055,
        0.075
      ],
      "capacity_factor": [
        0.85,
        0.95
      ],
      "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": [
        0.0,
        3.0
      ]
    }
  },
  "source_sha256": {
    "tools/audit-thirty-mwh.py": "b4e6ddb970af34ec0670f6f63301ba27602abbadb11274a76b08232fd09b49c8",
    "tools/stress-ladder.py": "4d5c3d1e4897990eefc2f04a33737a323ffbfc4c5a928bedb97f5bb05cf6a86b",
    "software/power-block/cycle_select.py": "50fa230bbf141f61f2043874278e27c78b978eb7e1ac8e2c5201f199aea56f95",
    "software/power-block/steam.py": "6deeb4e3b75e92228f58ccdee67af9c7aa7391fa2152f91e9a37a2a4958b135e"
  },
  "transcription_gate": {
    "proxy_matches_coupled_to_1e-9": true,
    "reference_lcoe": 29.801515451011966,
    "proxy_lcoe": 29.801515451011966
  },
  "ratio_curves": {
    "flash_binary": [
      [
        180.0,
        0.8971,
        0.6334
      ],
      [
        195.24,
        0.9045,
        0.661
      ],
      [
        210.48,
        0.9161,
        0.6879
      ],
      [
        225.71,
        0.9309,
        0.7143
      ],
      [
        240.95,
        0.9464,
        0.7408
      ],
      [
        256.19,
        0.9628,
        0.768
      ],
      [
        271.43,
        0.9841,
        0.7964
      ],
      [
        286.67,
        1.007,
        0.8269
      ],
      [
        301.9,
        1.0341,
        0.8604
      ],
      [
        317.14,
        1.0683,
        0.8985
      ],
      [
        332.38,
        1.1072,
        0.944
      ],
      [
        347.62,
        1.1487,
        0.9979
      ]
    ],
    "single_flash": [
      [
        180.0,
        0.3272,
        0.2771
      ],
      [
        195.24,
        0.3694,
        0.3221
      ],
      [
        210.48,
        0.4095,
        0.3637
      ],
      [
        225.71,
        0.4481,
        0.4032
      ],
      [
        240.95,
        0.4862,
        0.4414
      ],
      [
        256.19,
        0.5243,
        0.4793
      ],
      [
        271.43,
        0.5633,
        0.5175
      ],
      [
        286.67,
        0.6041,
        0.5572
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      [
        301.9,
        0.6479,
        0.5995
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      [
        317.14,
        0.6964,
        0.6461
      ],
      [
        332.38,
        0.7528,
        0.7
      ],
      [
        347.62,
        0.8235,
        0.7672
      ],
      [
        378.1,
        0.9938,
        0.9286
      ],
      [
        393.33,
        1.6052,
        1.5052
      ],
      [
        408.57,
        1.7249,
        1.6185
      ],
      [
        423.81,
        1.752,
        1.6444
      ],
      [
        439.05,
        1.9459,
        1.8264
      ],
      [
        454.29,
        1.9858,
        1.8638
      ],
      [
        469.52,
        1.9543,
        1.8343
      ],
      [
        484.76,
        1.9205,
        1.8026
      ],
      [
        500.0,
        1.8859,
        1.7702
      ]
    ]
  },
  "rows": {
    "R5P_320c_allowance_realphysics": {
      "declared_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 30.443378112536585,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 47.53223243670756,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 60.893047694331955,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 79.62376426666394,
        "p05": 29.53909550617327,
        "p50": 34.32255695441749,
        "p95": 39.88885798986052,
        "frac_le_30": 0.07145,
        "frac_le_45": 0.99925,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.4312,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.3341,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.4183,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.1839,
          "discount_rate": 0.5667,
          "capacity_factor": -0.2555,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.2756
        }
      },
      "spec": {
        "id": "R5P_320c_allowance_realphysics",
        "rock_c": 320.0,
        "subsurface_musd": 15.0,
        "surface_usd_gross_kw": 1012.0,
        "note": "the $30 row as specced, real conversion"
      },
      "contract_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 30.443378112536585,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 47.53223243670756,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 60.893047694331955,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 79.62376426666394,
        "p05": 27.199304297604098,
        "p50": 30.414220031715494,
        "p95": 33.95736112376585,
        "frac_le_30": 0.4166,
        "frac_le_45": 1.0,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.294,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.4601,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.4516,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.2043,
          "discount_rate": 0.3765,
          "capacity_factor": -0.3217,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.4198
        }
      }
    },
    "R5C_320c_combined_realcost": {
      "declared_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 45.71915260912997,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 47.53223243670756,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 60.893047694331955,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 133.81857671461935,
        "p05": 43.18024632526834,
        "p50": 51.11543949945853,
        "p95": 60.382267339855005,
        "frac_le_30": 0.0,
        "frac_le_45": 0.10985,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.4344,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.338,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.4775,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.1067,
          "discount_rate": 0.576,
          "capacity_factor": -0.257,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.1707
        }
      },
      "spec": {
        "id": "R5C_320c_combined_realcost",
        "rock_c": 320.0,
        "subsurface_musd": 15.0,
        "surface_usd_gross_kw": 1902.0,
        "note": "reality-check row at combined stack cost"
      },
      "contract_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 45.71915260912997,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 47.53223243670756,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 60.893047694331955,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 133.81857671461935,
        "p05": 39.52817430369417,
        "p50": 44.61824407858151,
        "p95": 50.35559497048371,
        "frac_le_30": 0.0,
        "frac_le_45": 0.5431,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.3055,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.4823,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.5355,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.1324,
          "discount_rate": 0.3952,
          "capacity_factor": -0.335,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.2583
        }
      }
    },
    "R6S_500c_today_cost": {
      "declared_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 37.1861743442884,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 205.1937228291527,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 228.73295314819822,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 439.7193156667568,
        "p05": 35.32560072894417,
        "p50": 41.62725613171664,
        "p95": 49.00854322954666,
        "frac_le_30": 0.0,
        "frac_le_45": 0.77045,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.4194,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.3268,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.5039,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.0429,
          "discount_rate": 0.5713,
          "capacity_factor": -0.2487,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.212
        }
      },
      "spec": {
        "id": "R6S_500c_today_cost",
        "rock_c": 500.0,
        "subsurface_musd": 25.0,
        "surface_usd_gross_kw": 1800.0,
        "note": "superhot at today cost class"
      },
      "contract_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 37.1861743442884,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 205.1937228291527,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 228.73295314819822,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 439.7193156667568,
        "p05": 32.50778163592065,
        "p50": 36.608268002057784,
        "p95": 41.23847173343379,
        "frac_le_30": 0.0019,
        "frac_le_45": 0.9994,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.2925,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.4606,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.5547,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.0647,
          "discount_rate": 0.3852,
          "capacity_factor": -0.32,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.3219
        }
      }
    },
    "R6T_500c_e3_target": {
      "declared_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 31.11335506070107,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 205.1937228291527,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 228.73295314819822,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 348.2261344074775,
        "p05": 29.894492120107635,
        "p50": 34.95778281845248,
        "p95": 40.84923657208644,
        "frac_le_30": 0.05405,
        "frac_le_45": 0.997,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.4164,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.324,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.4901,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.0563,
          "discount_rate": 0.5657,
          "capacity_factor": -0.2471,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.2626
        }
      },
      "spec": {
        "id": "R6T_500c_e3_target",
        "rock_c": 500.0,
        "subsurface_musd": 25.0,
        "surface_usd_gross_kw": 1400.0,
        "note": "superhot at E3 target class"
      },
      "contract_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 31.11335506070107,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 205.1937228291527,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 228.73295314819822,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 348.2261344074775,
        "p05": 27.60673262324139,
        "p50": 30.971761760733653,
        "p95": 34.736677104122954,
        "frac_le_30": 0.3225,
        "frac_le_45": 1.0,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.2859,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.4485,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.5281,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.0763,
          "discount_rate": 0.3742,
          "capacity_factor": -0.3124,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.3983
        }
      }
    },
    "R6D_500c_design_2458": {
      "declared_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 24.580519716382,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 205.1937228291527,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 228.73295314819822,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 249.80234466780783,
        "p05": 24.078626365602766,
        "p50": 27.799838012236666,
        "p95": 32.20034883363066,
        "frac_le_30": 0.8,
        "frac_le_45": 1.0,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.4083,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.3212,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.4568,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.0814,
          "discount_rate": 0.5513,
          "capacity_factor": -0.2199,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.3451
        }
      },
      "spec": {
        "id": "R6D_500c_design_2458",
        "rock_c": 500.0,
        "subsurface_musd": 25.0,
        "surface_usd_gross_kw": 969.7,
        "note": "superhot design point solved for the 80%-box rule"
      },
      "contract_box": {
        "nominal_lcoe_usd_mwh": 24.580519716382,
        "nominal_mean_net_mw": 205.1937228291527,
        "nominal_gross_initial_mw": 228.73295314819822,
        "nominal_capex_musd": 249.80234466780783,
        "p05": 22.25859171335177,
        "p50": 24.88486706378454,
        "p95": 27.72586438679084,
        "frac_le_30": 0.999,
        "frac_le_45": 1.0,
        "rank_corr": {
          "capital_multiplier": 0.2595,
          "energy_multiplier": -0.4131,
          "surface_price_multiplier": 0.4795,
          "subsurface_multiplier": 0.0831,
          "discount_rate": 0.3611,
          "capacity_factor": -0.3038,
          "extra_variable_om_usd_mwh": 0.5275
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "design_rule": {
    "target_nominal_usd_mwh": 24.58,
    "solved_surface_usd_per_gross_kw": 969.7,
    "reading": "the nominal design that holds $30 across 80% of the declared box (LADDER-STRESS lever 1) at 500 C / $25m subsurface with real single-flash conversion"
  },
  "limits": [
    "Different project definitions in one model; rows are not additive.",
    "Superhot rows assume 294 kg/s deliverability at 500 C \u2014 unproven (IDDP-class wells delivered ~50 kg/s).",
    "The x1.60 USD escalation and the cost stacks are assumption-class.",
    "Contract box is a commercial structure, not an engineering result."
  ]
}