{ "record_type": "room_virtual_push", "push": "VP1", "topic": "deliverability", "date": "2026-10-03", "label": "SIMULATED", "question": "Which superhot ladder rows survive at IDDP-class deliverability (~50 kg/s), and what does completion hydraulics (7in vs 12in) cost net output?", "judged_by": [ { "file": "tools/ladder-reinforced.py", "sha256": "7dfd0c4523feb6193b75fbb5dc6834abf73e1f032a0f5ef142c4b0bd4abdb7da" }, { "file": "qa/ladder-reinforced-2026-10-02.json", "sha256": "a0778be1319c4dd836cfc262ac5aff958ab89ffd73722e887ba44de33ff94a3b" }, { "file": "qa/geophires-crosscheck-2026-10-02.json", "sha256": "076a1f9d02299a9446620fb9196970c680de3c83414db75b5c766a3a21d81ca3" }, { "file": "tools/audit-thirty-mwh.py", "sha256": "b4e6ddb970af34ec0670f6f63301ba27602abbadb11274a76b08232fd09b49c8" }, { "file": "software/power-block/cycle_select.py", "sha256": "50fa230bbf141f61f2043874278e27c78b978eb7e1ac8e2c5201f199aea56f95" } ], "seed": 20261003, "assumptions": [ "flow grid 50-294 kg/s: 50 is the IDDP-class measured deliverability (W1B-018 class, ~50 kg/s), 294 is the ladder's declared superhot flow (assumption)", "wellbore pump scaling: pump_mw \u221d (Q/294)^3 declared as turbulent-friction law (charged in the headline column) with the \u221d (Q/294)^2 laminar/linear-dp bound reported alongside \u2014 both assumption-class, no measured hydraulics exists", "pump anchors at 294 kg/s: 29.14 MW (GEOPHIRES 7in matched), 0.67 MW (GEOPHIRES 12in matched), 4.66 MW (audited model target case) \u2014 all SIMULATED/model", "box draws: uniform over the declared stress box of qa/ladder-reinforced-2026-10-02.json (2000 draws, seed 20261003) \u2014 fractions of a box, never probabilities (S1)" ], "limits": [ "Sweep cells are model arithmetic on assumption inputs; no well at S2 exists and no hydraulics at 500 C is measured (red-team open items 1-2 bound, not closed).", "The ladder's curve mode charges station auxiliaries but not wellbore pumping (reinforced_coupled uses pump_mw only in proxy mode) \u2014 this sweep charges it explicitly under the declared laws; the ladder record itself is unchanged.", "Rows are different project definitions \u2014 never additive (S4)." ], "house_rules": [ "pump/treatment electricity stays separate from recovered output", "redistributed flow is never counted as new heat", "box fractions are never probabilities (CLAIM-TRACE S1)", "analysis alone is not qualification \u2014 zero measured duty hours (IEEE Std 323)" ], "transcription_gate": { "proxy_matches_audited_to_1e-9": true, "reference_lcoe_usd_mwh": 29.801515451011962, "proxy_lcoe_usd_mwh": 29.801515451011962 }, "hydraulics_anchors_mw_at_294_kg_s": { "7in_geophires": 29.14, "12in_geophires": 0.67, "audited_model": 4.660727949656316 }, "flow_grid_kg_s": [ 50.0, 75.0, 100.0, 150.0, 200.0, 294.0 ], "rows_swept": [ "R6D_500c_design_2458", "R6S_500c_today_cost", "R6T_500c_e3_target" ], "pump_law_note": "q3 law (turbulent friction) is charged in the headline columns; the q2 law bound is reported per cell; at 294 kg/s both equal the recorded anchor", "cells": [ { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 50.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 38.9, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 34.897, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.1433, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.8428, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 34.754, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 33.65, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 33.753, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 34.268, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.003, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.953, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 50.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 38.9, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 34.897, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0033, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.0194, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 34.894, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 33.65, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 33.652, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 33.664, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.003, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.9565, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 50.0, "hydraulics": "audited_model", "gross_initial_mw": 38.9, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 34.897, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0229, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.1348, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 34.874, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 33.65, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 33.666, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 33.747, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.003, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.9555, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 75.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 58.35, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 52.345, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.4838, "pump_mw_q2_law": 1.8963, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 51.862, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 30.007, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 30.207, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 30.813, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0815, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.9995, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 75.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 58.35, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 52.345, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0111, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.0436, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 52.334, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 30.007, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 30.012, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 30.025, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0935, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.9995, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 75.0, "hydraulics": "audited_model", "gross_initial_mw": 58.35, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 52.345, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0774, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.3033, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 52.268, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 30.007, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 30.039, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 30.132, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0925, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.9995, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 100.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 77.8, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 69.794, "pump_mw_q3_law": 1.1467, "pump_mw_q2_law": 3.3713, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 68.647, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 28.186, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 28.514, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 29.183, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.217, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 100.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 77.8, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 69.794, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0264, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.0775, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 69.767, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 28.186, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 28.193, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 28.208, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.2485, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 100.0, "hydraulics": "audited_model", "gross_initial_mw": 77.8, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 69.794, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.1834, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.5392, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 69.61, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 28.186, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 28.238, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 28.339, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.243, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 150.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 116.7, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 104.691, "pump_mw_q3_law": 3.8701, "pump_mw_q2_law": 7.5854, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 100.821, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 26.365, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 27.051, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 27.76, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.414, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 150.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 116.7, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 104.691, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.089, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.1744, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 104.602, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 26.365, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 26.38, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 26.395, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.5265, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 150.0, "hydraulics": "audited_model", "gross_initial_mw": 116.7, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 104.691, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.619, "pump_mw_q2_law": 1.2132, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 104.072, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 26.365, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 26.471, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 26.574, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.5125, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 200.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 155.601, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 139.588, "pump_mw_q3_law": 9.1736, "pump_mw_q2_law": 13.4851, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 130.414, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 25.454, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 26.648, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 27.268, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.486, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 200.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 155.601, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 139.588, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.2109, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.3101, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 139.377, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 25.454, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 25.48, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 25.492, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.6735, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 200.0, "hydraulics": "audited_model", "gross_initial_mw": 155.601, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 139.588, "pump_mw_q3_law": 1.4672, "pump_mw_q2_law": 2.1568, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 138.12, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 25.454, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 25.635, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 25.721, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.648, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 294.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 228.733, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 205.194, "pump_mw_q3_law": 29.14, "pump_mw_q2_law": 29.14, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 176.054, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 24.581, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 27.244, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 27.244, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.387, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 294.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 228.733, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 205.194, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.67, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.67, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 204.524, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 24.581, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 24.633, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 24.633, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.793, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6D_500c_design_2458", "flow_kg_s": 294.0, "hydraulics": "audited_model", "gross_initial_mw": 228.733, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 205.194, "pump_mw_q3_law": 4.6607, "pump_mw_q2_law": 4.6607, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 200.533, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 24.581, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 24.956, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 24.956, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.7415, "frac_le_45_q3": 1.0, "holds_30_nominal_q3": true, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6S_500c_today_cost", "flow_kg_s": 50.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 38.9, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 34.897, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.1433, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.8428, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 34.754, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 46.256, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 46.409, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 47.178, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.082, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": false }, { "row": "R6S_500c_today_cost", "flow_kg_s": 50.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 38.9, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 34.897, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0033, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.0194, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 34.894, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 46.256, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 46.259, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 46.276, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.085, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": false }, { "row": "R6S_500c_today_cost", "flow_kg_s": 50.0, "hydraulics": "audited_model", "gross_initial_mw": 38.9, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 34.897, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0229, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.1348, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 34.874, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 46.256, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 46.28, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 46.4, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.085, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": false }, { "row": "R6S_500c_today_cost", "flow_kg_s": 75.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 58.35, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 52.345, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.4838, "pump_mw_q2_law": 1.8963, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 51.862, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 42.613, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 42.928, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 43.88, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.2495, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6S_500c_today_cost", "flow_kg_s": 75.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 58.35, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 52.345, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0111, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.0436, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 52.334, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 42.613, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 42.62, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 42.641, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.2705, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6S_500c_today_cost", "flow_kg_s": 75.0, "hydraulics": "audited_model", "gross_initial_mw": 58.35, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 52.345, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0774, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.3033, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 52.268, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 42.613, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 42.663, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 42.81, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.267, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6S_500c_today_cost", "flow_kg_s": 100.0, "hydraulics": "7in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 77.8, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 69.794, "pump_mw_q3_law": 1.1467, "pump_mw_q2_law": 3.3713, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 68.647, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 40.792, "lcoe_charged_q3_usd_mwh": 41.325, "lcoe_charged_q2_usd_mwh": 42.411, "frac_le_30_q3": 0.0, "frac_le_45_q3": 0.389, "holds_30_nominal_q3": false, "holds_45_nominal_q3": true }, { "row": "R6S_500c_today_cost", "flow_kg_s": 100.0, "hydraulics": "12in_geophires", "gross_initial_mw": 77.8, "mean_net_mw_ladder_convention": 69.794, "pump_mw_q3_law": 0.0264, "pump_mw_q2_law": 0.0775, "mean_net_mw_after_wellbore_pump_q3": 69.767, "lcoe_as_recorded_usd_mwh": 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